A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
